Knowing that the ball was gold gives you Bayesian knowledge about the boxes behind the door, since the prior probability of the host pulling a gold ball from a 6-gold door is different than from the 3/3 door. So you have to multiply Monty Hall probabilities and Bayesian probabilities together.
That assumes the host pulled a ball at random, of course, and not a deliberately gold ball.
Always has been 🪩👨🚀🔫👨🚀
Doesn’t say the trolley is a runaway. Don’t even need to make deals, you can safely walk away.
The Pied Piper strategy from the 2016 Clinton campaign!
KM3-230213A is an ultra-energetic (220PeV) neutrino event recorded by the Cubic Kilometre Neutrino Telescope (KM3NeT) on the bottom of the Mediterranean sea. The telescope consists of thousands of photomultiplier sensors suspended in the water, watching for Cherenkov radiation of the decay particles resulting from the rare collision of a neutrino with the inside of the Earth. There is no known cosmic mechanism how a neutrino so energetic could have come to be.
This meme proposes the hijinks of Apu as an alternative explanation of how all those blue-sensitive photomultipliers got activated (saturated even) in a straight line going from bottom up all at once.
Your family was kidnapped and is now safely eating ice cream backstage. Tied to the tracks are 5 infinite worlds Hitlers.
it’s not clear that he’s following Monty Hall rules
Whenever I see a badly-specified Monty Hall Problem, I always imagine the host saying something like “Oh, you want to pick door number 1? Well, guess what - the car was behind door number 3 all along! You get nothing but a goat!” And only when you initially pick a door with the car does the host ask “Are you sure you wouldn’t rather switch to door number 2? Look, there is even a goat behind door number 3!” Switching doors 100% gurantees you get a goat… or 50% silver balls in this case.
Yeah, problem doesn’t specify whether you want your family to live. Common mistake.
Doesn’t say it’s your family tied to the tracks either.
Beautifully written!
I think the probabilities cancel out?
My conclusion as well. Except that since Jigsaw has taken one gold ball out, door 2 must have slightly better chance of gold ball remaining on average (75% vs 72.2%?).
By denying the Constitution of the United States in violation of his Oath of Office, House Speaker Mike Johnson is unironically committing treason right now.
You implied it by answering Corngood’s question “You have to rank 5 candidates?” with a link to a general RCV video. You misunderstood Corngood to not know what RCV is. However, within the context of this thread (“NYC elections”), some awareness of RCV is to be presumed. Indeed, Corngood mentions in another comment to have already used RCV before. To me it was clear Corngood was upset about the “have to rank 5”, not about “WTF is RCV”. By linking to a general video you are implying that this is how RCV works, that you HAVE to rank 5, otherwise it won’t count, which is false. That’s not what you meant, but this is how it appears to other readers who would not be aware of your original misunderstanding. Those of us who actually like RCV feel an obligation to step in and correct you, all of us at once, to pre-empt the hazard of somebody else believing in your (unintentional) implication and ending up with the wrong idea that “wow, RCV sucks! your ballot gets thrown out if you don’t fill in all 5 bubbles perfectly!”
You are NOT required to rank all 5 choices for the ballot to be valid! A single bubble filled in will be counted. The voter guide and voter instructions explicitly mention this in multiple places. What grandparent comment meant was that if more progressive voters who only ranked 1 candidate had also ranked Kathryn Garcia in any position 2-through-5 (and ranked Adams below or not at all), then maybe Garcia would have won. Voters who only rank 1 candidate are missing out on the full power of their ranked choice vote if their 1st-and-only candidate is eliminated early.
I saw a study that DHMO is stored in the balls.
Yes! Cancels out, leaving only a very slight edge on door 2. All that work for only… 2.77% edge over picking at random. What a troll problem, huh?